2025 NFL Free Agency: Projecting Contracts and Destinations
As free agency approaches, top NFL talents will be fielding offers, with the official signing period set to open in just a few days. To visualize how the market might unfold, a simulation was conducted for seven key free agents, evaluating potential contracts and ideal landing spots.
Sam Darnold: Raiders or Titans?
Coming off a career year with the Minnesota Vikings (4,319 passing yards, 35 TDs), Sam Darnold emerged as an attractive free-agent quarterback. Two teams made aggressive offers:
- Las Vegas Raiders: Three-year, $125 million deal ($55 million guaranteed). New head coach Pete Carroll is eager to stabilize the QB position, and Darnold fits the scheme.
- Tennessee Titans: Three-year, $120 million offer ($85 million guaranteed). With a stronger guarantee and an opt-out after two years, this deal provides flexibility.
Decision: Darnold chooses the Titans, valuing the higher guaranteed sum and the opportunity to establish himself long-term.
Ronnie Stanley: Patriots Land Their Anchor
A crucial piece of Baltimore’s offensive line, Ronnie Stanley was courted by his current team and the Patriots.
- New England Patriots: Four years, $100 million ($65 million guaranteed). This offer aimed to lock in a cornerstone left tackle to protect rookie QB Drake Maye.
- Baltimore Ravens: Three years, $60 million ($43 million guaranteed). A more conservative approach due to the team’s cap constraints.
Decision: Stanley opts for the Patriots, appreciating their financial commitment and long-term vision.
Josh Sweat: Commanders Secure Pass Rush Help
Sweat, a premier pass rusher, drew interest from multiple teams:
- Washington Commanders: Three years, $60 million ($40 million guaranteed). Seeking to strengthen their edge rush.
- Green Bay Packers: Four years, $72 million ($24 million guaranteed). Looking to bolster their pass rush without relying on blitzing.
- Arizona Cardinals: Three years, $43 million ($21 million guaranteed). Reuniting with former coordinator Jonathan Gannon was an appealing factor.
- Carolina Panthers: Four years, $78 million ($46.8 million guaranteed). A major commitment to improving their defensive line.
Decision: Sweat accepts the Commanders’ offer, choosing the higher guaranteed money and a team on the rise.
Milton Williams: Vikings Win the Bidding War
A disruptive defensive tackle, Milton Williams found strong suitors:
- Minnesota Vikings: Four years, $96 million ($75 million guaranteed). A major move to reinforce their interior defense.
- Denver Broncos: Three years, $73 million ($40 million guaranteed). Prioritizing improvements to run defense.
- New England Patriots: Four years, $97 million ($55 million guaranteed). Aligning with their trench-focused rebuild.
Decision: Williams signs with the Vikings, valuing their competitive roster and strong deal structure.
Zack Baun: Staying in Philadelphia
Having thrived in a new role with the Eagles, linebacker Zack Baun entertained two serious offers:
- Philadelphia Eagles: Three years, $36 million ($14 million guaranteed). Rewarding his All-Pro season.
- Atlanta Falcons: Three years, $31.3 million ($17.6 million guaranteed). A team in need of versatile defensive playmakers.
Decision: Baun stays with the Eagles, embracing continuity under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
D.J. Reed: Giants Secure Their No. 1 Corner
Cornerback D.J. Reed had no shortage of suitors:
- New York Giants: Four years, $72 million ($40 million guaranteed). Desperate to shore up one of the league’s worst secondaries.
- Atlanta Falcons: Four years, $56 million ($33.6 million guaranteed). Seeking a top cornerback opposite A.J. Terrell.
- Green Bay Packers: Four years, $60 million ($16.5 million guaranteed). Looking for potential Jaire Alexander replacements.
Decision: Reed joins the Giants, favoring their aggressive offer and ability to stay within the New York market.
Jevon Holland: Jets Make a Splash
With multiple teams in need of safety help, Jevon Holland saw meaningful offers:
- New York Jets: Four years, $80 million ($42 million guaranteed). A desperate team willing to pay top dollar.
- Indianapolis Colts: Four years, $64 million ($30 million guaranteed). A solid bid to upgrade their defensive backfield.
Decision: Holland locks in with the Jets, securing the best financial package and a premier defensive role.
Final Thoughts
The free agency landscape is always unpredictable, but teams with cap space and strategic foresight can make impactful signings. As negotiations unfold, these contracts could shape the league’s competitive balance for years to come. Which of these signings will prove most valuable? Time will tell.
